India's Dairy sector on a high ...albeit diversification needs a push
India has maintained the unbeatable spot of being the top milk producer in the world. Thanks to the far sightedness of thinkers like Dr Kurien that mechanisms like white revolution and cooperatives have stead fast India's growth in the dairy industry. Little wonder that shanties with buffaloes tied up in the yard is not a rare sight in India.
Going by the statistics, India has shown almost nil signs of slowdown with milk consumption envisaged to rise by 2.6% in 2009 and milk production forecast to sustain its normal growth of about 3%. India is the world's largest milk producer with 104.9 million tonnes per year. Milk production in India is growing at 4% per year, and at present India contributes 15% of the total global milk production. The country boasts of some 300 million dairy cattle. India's dual distinction in the dairy segment comes from the fact that it is both the world's top milk producer and the world's largest milk consumer.
According to a dairy report released by the Tetra Pak, since 1999, India has produced more milk than any other country in the world. Over the last four years, milk production in India has increased by a compound annual growth rate of 4.3%.
India also tops the charts in terms of milk consumption, consuming 51.5 billion litres of milk and other liquid dairy products in 2008, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.7% over the last four years. That's almost double the volumes consumed by the number two milk consumer, China. Dairy sector contribution is around 65-70% to livestock sector. However, we have less than 1000 milk processing centres in India. The level of processing is expected to be around 15% in the short term, 20% in the medium term and 30% in the long term. We need to empower the farmers so that large and modern commercially viable units enter into the indigenous dairy products manufacturing by bringing improved quality standards, commercially viable technologies, nano technology based packing and refrigerated transportation system for hygienic distribution and increased shelf-life.
Amul has been ranked amongst the top 21 largest dairy businesses in the world as per the findings published by International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN) at the 10th IFCN Dairy Conference 2009 at Stockholm. Domestically Amul leads the rest in terms of milk production followed by Karanataka Milk Federation.
The exports of Dairy Products from India reached 69415.44 million tonnes with the value of Rs 866.58 crore in 2007-08 as against Rs 434.58 crore in 2006-07. GCMMF is India's largest exporter of Dairy Products. It has been accorded a "Trading House" status.
Amul GCMMF, Mother Dairy India Ltd, and Nestle India Ltd represent the 3 active competitors in the probiotic dairy market. New entrants for future include Yakult, the global leader in yoghurts, with its partnership with Danone.
Tetra Pak's top 10 global trends in the dairy sector are as follows:
Budgeting
Consumers are seeking more value and buying products through different channels.
With the ongoing economic crisis, consumers are economising. They're more willing to look around for the best offer and they expect more value for their money. However, instead of cutting down on dairy products, consumers are now more likely to buy plain milk than fortified milk, choose budget brands over premium brands and buy their products through different channels, like discounters.
Anxious Consumers
According to a recent international poll, developing regions are particularly worried about food safety. More specifically, they are helping to drive conversion to packed milk, mainly UHT milk. According to Tetra Pak data, worldwide consumption of UHT milk has increased from 18.7% of total liquid dairy products sold in 2004 to 23% in 2008 - a compound annual growth rate of 7.9%. This change in the way milk is processed and consumed in developing markets has been driven by increased consumer awareness of food safety. For example, up until the last few years, consumers in some developing markets believed that the best milk came straight from the cow. This perception is changing.
Consumers more aware of food quality
Today's consumer is much more aware that milk sold in "loose" form instead of in packages deteriorates quickly and can carry bacteria and diseases, including tuberculosis, typhoid and salmonella. In addition, they no longer want to spend the time to boil milk for 10 to 20 minutes before they drink it to ensure it is safe - never mind both the altered nutritional content and taste.
Even so, concerns around the production, quality and protection of foods are likely to remain high on the public agenda all around the world. This means the trend toward packaged milk - and particularly packaged UHT milk, which offers a long shelf life with no refrigeration required before opening and no need for preservatives - is set to continue, both in developing and developed markets.
Stretched lives: All around the world, people are becoming busier and busier, both with work and social activities. In fact, global consumers spend an average of five hours per week commuting - up from 4.3 hours in 2004. In developing countries, this number is even higher at 5.8 hours per week spent commuting. Currently 20% of consumers worldwide sip a drink while walking or driving at least once a week. This number is as high as 41% in the United States and 38% in Australia and tends to be even higher for younger consumers age 13 to 19. In addition, active households have less time for cooking so they are looking for products that are convenient, easy to use and easy to prepare. This can mean, for example, switching from flavoured milk powder or baby formula in powdered form to liquid milk products. It can also mean favouring drinking yogurt over eating yogurt with a spoon. Over the last four years, consumption of flavoured milk sold in ready-to-drink liquid form has increased by a compound annual growth rate of 9.6%. This compares to an increase of 1.9% over the same time period for flavoured milk powder. During the same time period, consumption of yogurt drinks has risen by a compound annual growth rate of 9% compared to 4.5% for spoonable yogurt.
Consider also that 28% of global consumers no longer eat breakfast at home, traditionally an important consumption occasion for milk all around the world. Instead, 17% have breakfast on the way to work, 27% sip a drink while walking or driving and 42% skip breakfast altogether in favour of a mid-morning snack. Making breakfast available in the right format to meet the changing needs of busy consumers - whether through yogurt drinks, flavoured milk or white milk sold in on-the-go packages - will be essential moving forward. In fact, this is true across the full range of milk consumption occasions. In the medium term, the most successful dairy producers will be those who make the right milk products available in the right formats to cater to changing consumption habits in specific markets around the world. However, in the short term, we may see a slow down in the out-of-home consumption given the challenging economic environment, but certainly the trend will not be reversed.
Health and wellbeing: Good health ranks number 1 in 24 out of 25 countries as the core component of a "good life." In fact, all around the world, health is quickly becoming a consumer priority. While developing markets worry about the safe, hygienic, production of food, mature markets are more focused on issues such as obesity and nutrition. However, that doesn't mean these concerns are always translated into action. Approximately 73% of global consumers say eating healthy and nutritious foods is very important to their personal health and wellbeing. Yet, in practice, only 53% regularly eat healthy and nutritious foods. And while these same consumers agree that their long-term health is important, only one in three do everything they can to maintain it.
Consumption of fortified and functional milk products rising globally->
This health and wellness trend has had a tremendous impact on the dairy market as different healthy segments emerge to satisfy different needs. For example, fortified and functional milk is the fastest growing segment among products that target health-conscious consumers, with global sales now topping $20 billion annually. Over the last four years, sales of fortified/functional milk in Western Europe alone have grown by 12.5%. At the same time, consumption of soy milk is increasing because soy protein has been linked to benefits such as reducing cholesterol, improving bone health and aiding relaxation. According to recent research from Tetra Pak, soy milk consumption has increased by a compound annual growth rate of 4.2% over the last three years alone. Moving forward, this health and wellness trend is expected to continue to have an impact on the dairy category. However, in the current economic climate, consumers will also keep an eye on their budgets.
Simple and authentic: Some consumers are demonstrating resistance to what they perceive as over-marketing in today's world. These consumers prefer "real" or traditional products, traditional craftsmanship and traditional experiences, rather than "fake," "spun" or "over-marketed" ones.
Consumers increasingly seek traditional products. When it comes to food, traditional products are what global consumers want most. Around 68% of global consumers say they tend to stick with foods with which they are familiar. Approximately 57% say they try to avoid "ready meals" at home, and the same percentage say they try to avoid eating fast food. This trend toward simplicity and authenticity is expected to become increasingly important, particularly in developed markets. In these markets, consumers are expected to show a return to traditional values and production methods, which will impact the types of dairy products they buy and consume, especially when coupled with today's challenging economic situation.
Ethical choice
Ethical beliefs don't always translate into action. While consumers demand more ethical products - from organic goods to fair trade foods to products available in environmentally friendly packaging, they're generally not willing to compromise their priorities for it. They may say they desire to act ethically and environmentally, but whether they will buy and behave more ethically moving forward is uncertain, especially in turbulent economic times. Those that have to be more careful with their money may push back when money gets tighter. Furthermore, consumers may begin to take "ethical" for granted and expect ethical products to be available at the same price and quality as the "less ethical" ones.